Model Regresi Nonparametrik Spline Truncated Pada Indeks Pembangunan Manusia di Indonesia

Abstract

Truncated spline nonparametric regression is a nonparametric regression analysis using a segmented polynomial model. This segmented nature provides flexibility so that the regression model can adapt more effectively to the local characteristics of the data. The purpose of this study was to obtain a regression model and determine the factors that influence the Human Development Index (HDI) in all provinces in Indonesia using multivariable truncated spline nonparametric regression. The Human Development Index is an important indicator in measuring success in efforts to build the quality of human life. The Human Development Index can determine the rank or level of development of a region and a country. In development, a high Human Development Index is something that is expected to be achieved, especially for developing countries. The Human Development Index data used in this study is based on BPS data published in 2020 from all provinces in Indonesia. In this study, based on the results of the analysis, the best nonparametric truncated spline regression was obtained using 1 knot point, 2 knot point and 3 knot point. Based on the minimum Generalized Cross Validation (GCV) value, the best truncated spline regression model is 3 knots with an R² value of 83.70%. The factors that influence the Human Development Index are the variables expected length of schooling, life expectancy at birth, and population