Model Spatial Autoregressive Moving Average (SARMA) pada Data Jumlah Kejadian Demam Berdarah Dengue (DBD) di Provinsi Kalimantan Timur dan Tengah Tahun 2016

Abstract

Spatial Autoregressive Moving Average (SARMA) is a spatial regression model that uses the regional approach. The weighting matrix used is an adjacency matrix which is based on the intersection between observed locations. This study was conducted to determine the SARMA model and the factors that influence the number of cases of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) in the provinces of East Kalimantan and Central Kalimantan in 2016. Based on the results of the Moran's Index test, there is a spatial autocorrelation on the number of dengue events in East Kalimantan Province and Central Kalimantan in 2016. The Lagrange Multiplier (LM) test has a spatial lag on the dependent variable and the error variable, which is a parameter  and  that is significant to the significance level . Based on the results of SARMA modeling that the factors that influence the number of dengue events in the provinces of East Kalimantan and Central Kalimantan in 2016 are the percentage of population density, the percentage of healthy houses, and the percentage of puskesmas.