Peramalan dengan Menggunakan Metode Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing

Studi Kasus: Jumlah Wisatawan Mancanegara yang Berkunjung Ke Indonesia

Abstract

Forecasting is a technique for estimating a value in the future by looking at past and current data. Foreign tourists are everyone who visits a country outside their place of residence, driven by one or several needs without intending to earn income in the place visited and the duration of the visit is no more than twelve months. The method used in this study is the Holt-Winters smoothing smoothing method. In this study used data of foreign tourists visiting Indonesia in January 2014 - September 2018. The purpose of this study was to determine the pattern of data forecasting the number of foreign tourists, the value of the accuracy of forecasting, and the results of forecasting. Based on the Holt-Winters smoothing method, the data pattern for the number of foreign tourists is the multiplicative Holt-Winters data pattern. The value of the smoothing parameter combination with the smallest MAPE of 0,938% is α = 0,9; β = 0,1; and γ = 0,9. The results of forecasting the number of foreign tourists visiting Indonesia in October 2018 and November 2018 were 1.410.157 and 1.362.473 people respectively