Peramalan Penjualan Pakaian dengan Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogeneous Input (ARIMAX)

Studi Kasus: Penjualan Pakaian di Toko M~Al Samarinda Tahun 2012 s.d 2016

Abstract

The rate of clothing sales will soar on holidays, religious celebrations, and preparations for the new year. In buying and selling transactions, there are times when the goods the consumer wants are sold out, so it is important for the store owner to provide clothing to be sold. Therefore ARIMAX method is used. ARIMAX is ARIMA model which has exogenous variable. Exogenous variables are variables that are considered to affect other variables, such as holidays and celebrations of the big day, and Eid is one of important indicator of clothing sales. The purpose of this research is to find out the best ARIMAX model in clothing sales at Toko M~Al and to find out the result of forecasting of clothing sales data at Toko M~Al for the next 12 periods. Forecasting results using ARIMAX method is SARIMA (1,0,2)(0,0,2)6 with the smallest MAPE value is 9,01089. The highest forecast result occurred in June that is 945 and the lowest estimate in December that is 187.