Peramalan Jumlah Titik Panas Provinsi Kalimantan Timur Menggunakan Analisis Intervensi Fungsi Pulse

  • Ahmad Ronaldy Saputra Laboratorium Statistika Terapan FMIPA Universitas Mulawarman
  • Sri Wahyuningsih Laboratorium Statistika Terapan FMIPA Universitas Mulawarman
  • Meiliyani Siringoringo Laboratorium Statistika Komputasi, FMIPA Universitas Mulawarman

Abstract

Intervention analysis is a time series analysis that used to explain the influence of intervention caused by external and internal factors. As for the number of hotspot in East Borneo which was increased in 2015. The purpose of this study was to determine the best intervention model for forecasting the number of hotspots in East Borneo. In the initial stage of the intervention analysis is to divide the data into 2 parts, namely data before the intervention and data after the intervention occurred. The results of the analysis obtained the best model for the data before the intervention occurred were SARIMA (0,1,1)(0,1,1)12. The next step was identifying the intervention function by observing the residual graph of the SARIMA model and obtained the order b = 0, s = 0 and r = 0 with the AIC value of the intervention model of  -143,16. Furthermore, based on the intervention model obtained forecasting results is increased from July to September 2019. The number of hotspots with the highest number of hotspots occurring on September 2019 with 249 hotspots. Then decreasing on October 2019 to 183 hotspots. On November 2019 it dropped significantly to 13 hotspots.

Published
2021-06-22
How to Cite
SAPUTRA, Ahmad Ronaldy; WAHYUNINGSIH, Sri; SIRINGORINGO, Meiliyani. Peramalan Jumlah Titik Panas Provinsi Kalimantan Timur Menggunakan Analisis Intervensi Fungsi Pulse. EKSPONENSIAL, [S.l.], v. 12, n. 1, p. 93-101, june 2021. ISSN 2085-7829. Available at: <http://jurnal.fmipa.unmul.ac.id/index.php/exponensial/article/view/766>. Date accessed: 25 sep. 2021.