Regresi Nonparametrik Spline Birespon Untuk Memodelkan Persentase Penduduk Miskin dan Indeks Kedalaman Kemiskinan di Kalimantan Timur Tahun 2015

Abstract

State of Indonesia is a developing country which has a problem, namely poverty. Poverty is a condition that is often associated with the needs, difficulties and shortcomings in the various circumstances of life. Measuring poverty in a region that can be done by looking at two indicators, namely the percentage of the poor population and the poverty depth index. This study uses 5 factors thought to affect the percentage of poor people and the depth of poverty in East Kalimantan which includes the average of the old school, the open unemployment rate, the labor force participation rate, population growth rate and the expectancy of the old school. The Data used in this study is the data year 2015, which is obtained from the Central bureau of Statistics of East Kalimantan Province. The method used is a nonparametric regression spline-response and determine the value of the optimal knots point using the Generalized Cross Validation (GCV). The best Model resulting from this research is the model with the point of optimal knot with the value of GCV of 31.14057 and  R-squared of 86.47.